J.D. Power is projecting that the pace of electric vehicle retail share growth will level off in 2025 at about 9.1 percent of the total market (about 1.2 million units). The E-Vision Intelligence Report: 2025 expects that with the new administration in the White House, the longer-term forecast will reach 26 percent retail share for EVs in 2030. Roughly half of the target set by the Biden administration.
The trend towards growth will depend on automakers staying the course in offering electric vehicles as a significant portion of their portfolios. Mainstream franchise EV sales were less than one percent of the electric vehicle market in 2021 and rose to nearly 3 percent in 2024. As sales hold steady, that puts mainstream brands such as Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Hyundai, and Kia in a good position to continue refining the EV market. Even as most EV sales remain in the higher-end market of premium and luxury makes.
Most market growth for electric vehicles will spearhead in California, the leading market for EVs. J.D. Power predicts 84 percent retail share of the automotive market in California will be electrics by 2035.
Key to achieving growth rates for electric vehicles across the country will be infrastructure support.
Aaron is an automotive journalist living in Wyoming, USA. His background includes technology, mechanics, commercial vehicles, and new vehicle evaluations. Aaron is a member of several automotive media groups and writes for many well-known publications.